The new gold.

What have LCD displays, hybrid vehicles and cell phones in common? You can not build if it is missing ores - Ores exotic metals, which are always scarce and more expensive. At the high-tech commodities experts that will ignite new conflicts.

 

Gallium, neodymium, Indium - the shortage of such raw materials with exotic names could soon be the future development of key technologies in Germany brakes. Manufacturers of flat panel displays and photovoltaics industries around competing for indium in the motors of hybrid vehicles stuck Neodymium magnets, and diodes, the semiconductor gallium metal is required.

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The rising demand for the rare high-tech metals will lead to economic constraints and fuel international conflict, as researchers from Berlin to warn.

The shortage of expensive raw materials "will help us in the coming decades, no longer let go", which is the scientific director of the Berlin Institute for Future Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT), Rolf Kreibich, convinced. Total 22 commodities and 32 future technologies, the researchers together with the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) under the microscope. The result: It is in the foreseeable future in many areas serious bottlenecks.

"Raw material shortages are massive expansion of solar power limit"

The demand for the metal indium particularly scarce for both the display industry as well as the photovoltaic manufacturers compete is up to 2030 more than three times as high as the current production, says researcher IZT Lorenz Erdmann, one of the authors of Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs commissioned study. Here are the manufacturer of displays at an advantage because their products at the price of the expensive raw material, much less significant than for solar cells. "We expect that raw material shortages the massive expansion of solar energy are limited," said Erdmann.

For many such metals, for example, because of their high temperature stability, its flexibility or its corrosion protection is sought, say the researchers provided a similar shortage. The demand for neodymium and 2030 will be four times the current production is, that even after six gallium.

The occurrence of the expensive high-tech metals is also extremely limited because they are often only as a byproduct in the promotion of other commodities fall. Indium, for example, is found in small amounts in zinc. The recycling in many divorce cases, because the raw materials together with other metals are being processed and is difficult to separate them again. The need is difficult to estimate, since this partly to the lack of transparency in armaments industry needed.

... is material for conflicts

Moreover, the sought-after metals very unevenly distributed around the world. The largest deposits of lithium, is essential for the development of batteries for electric cars is, for example, in Bolivia. China on the other hand, dominates the production of neodymium to 97 percent and has already secured Reserves in Africa, "as explained Kreibich. "Since the path to international conflicts."

In some countries, the war for expensive raw materials already begun. In the civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo is also access to coltan Roherz at stake: It is the coveted tantalum obtained, for example, for new phones is needed.

In the highly competitive commodity markets, there is already a "deliberate scarcity by speculation," notes Kreibich resistant - even if the supply of such coveted goods are mostly long term and therefore little room for speculation there. To protect the future technologies calls IZT-director of an international or at least European agency, which should monitor the markets. "As the G20 for the financial markets decided that we need transparency," says Kreibich. That should be his opinion on the market for metals and raw materials "but more regularized as a virtual financial transactions."