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In principle, the question of whether a community is growing or shrinking, easy to answer: If more people added as moving or die, increasing the population, otherwise not. But if a mayor wants to know how an annual rate of 1.5 per cent drop in birth rate at a 5 percent increase to exodus in 30 years affected, and how much immigration must increase to offset shrinking population, it will be complicated. In such cases, usually the time of the specialists, first of all a model of population development in software must be poured, then the further development to be able to simulate.
Oksimo website: With the free software should anybody can develop simulations - without any programming knowledge
This is expensive, for the model assumptions are difficult for laymen to understand and reuse these models in the rarest cases.
Gerd-Döbern Henisch, computer science professor at the University of Frankfurt, now wants all three birds with one stone. He has, together with some colleagues a free software called "
Oksimo "(Open Knowledge Simulation Modeling) developed by laypersons without any programming knowledge on their own models and simulations can create.
The idea came to Oksimo Döbern-Henisch when he was a software for modeling of neural processes in the brain examined. He found hundreds of simulation tools, but "so complicated" to operate was that he started, even a tool. As part of a thesis of one of his students programmed the associated editor with a graphical user interface. Now users can click a mouse to create colored boxes, which are available for certain parameters.
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Drag and drop boxes are linked, so that the output value of one to the input value of the other box is. In this way, all assumptions and interactions within a model also for outsiders to penetrate and not in the source code of a software hiding. The relationships between the parameters are expressed by mathematical functions. If a model is complete, you can input values and the simulation is started. A special feature this: A simulation does not dull from beginning to end, but can still during the period - including a number of users - can be influenced. In this way, train, how complex systems respond to intervention. Oksimo previously used mainly in teaching. Students have, inter alia, the world model of the Club of Rome reconstructed or the viability of energy investments modeled.
At this range of topics shows a further feature of Oksimo: The software is not limited to a particular subject, but can be transferred to various disciplines - from sociology about the biology to the economy. Even beyond the academic environment, the software is already used, and at a small community near Offenbach. "For it was a simple demographic model very enlightening," says Döbern-Henisch: The Oksimo simulation, fed with real data on the spot, was markedly different predictions about the population development of the place, than the averages of the Federal Statistical Office to expected.
If a model only once, it can be transferred from other users, or changed into larger contexts are integrated. Will such a district to calculate population trends, it can be simulations of the various communities into a single model together. As a platform for the exchange of existing models of the server of the "Competence Network for E-Learning Hesse" on the five models currently available for download. This should be the nucleus for a vision that Döbern-Henisch "Wikipedia process" called people to refine and link together models from different areas of life in a big world simulation to the ever growing complexity of society to grasp.
But would it not also to each model's inherent fuzziness immeasurably to grow? Gerd-Döbern Henisch knows these objections. "One must always models through feedback with the reality robust," says computer science professor. "Certain it is blurred but always give." For him, dealing with models is precisely why even great educational value: "Anyone who works with models, also gets a sense of their limits." Thinking in models that it is - except perhaps for engineers - in the academic world is normal. "This is a cultural deficit," said Döbern-Henisch.
So far only Oksimo was a "tender shoot", as Döbern-Henisch admits: "We already get a lot of really good questions, but it is still not set." Döbern-Henisch now hopes that his approach is sufficient response to its own momentum to develop.
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Technology Review, Heise Zeitschriften Verlag, Hannover
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